Peterson Matthew J, Pieper Carl F, Morey Miram C
Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Durham, NC 27705, USA.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2003 Jan;35(1):145-9. doi: 10.1097/00005768-200301000-00022.
We explored the accuracy and bias of prediction equations (ACSM and Foster) in older, deconditioned men and women. We also examined the predictors of VO2(max) to further understand which variables affect respiratory fitness in the elderly.
One hundred seventy-one community dwelling, men (72.6 +/- 4.8 yr) and women (71.0 +/- 5.1 yr) screened in a clinical trial were retrospectively examined. VO2(max) was measured using a standardized protocol with gas exchange measured. Measured VO2 (max) values were compared with prediction equations via mean difference analyses, and bias was explored using Bland-Altman analyses. Regression analysis determined significant predictors of measured VO2 (max). Alpha was P<or= 0.05.
In men and women, Foster, 21.6 +/- 5.7 and 17.9 +/- 5.1 mL.kg (-1).min (-1), respectively, was not significantly different from measured VO2 (max), 21.7 +/- 4.8 and 17.3 +/- 4.0, respectively. ACSM overestimated VO2 (max) in men and women, 26.3 +/- 8.2 and 20.9 +/- 7.3, respectively. By using Bland-Altman plots, ACSM showed significant overestimation bias in more fit women (r = 0.29), whereas Foster showed no estimation bias in either gender. Significant predictors of VO2 (max) were gender, BMI, age, treadmill grade, and speed, with an equation R(2) of 0.70. A measure of current activity levels did not make it into the final model ( P= 0.0505) but is worthy of future consideration using more sensitive measures than ours.
ACSM is not appropriate for use when treadmill testing older adults. We believe the Foster equation's VO2 (max) prediction accuracy is acceptable, showing no bias along a continuum of aerobic capacity.
我们探讨了预测方程（美国运动医学会[ACSM]和福斯特方程）在老年、身体机能减退的男性和女性中的准确性和偏差。我们还研究了最大摄氧量（VO2[max]）的预测因素，以进一步了解哪些变量会影响老年人的呼吸适应能力。
对在一项临床试验中筛查出的171名社区居住男性（72.6±4.8岁）和女性（71.0±5.1岁）进行回顾性研究。采用标准化方案测量VO2（max），并测量气体交换情况。通过均值差异分析将测量的VO2（max）值与预测方程进行比较，并使用布兰德-奥特曼分析探讨偏差。回归分析确定了测量的VO2（max）的显著预测因素。显著性水平设定为P≤0.05。
在男性和女性中，福斯特方程预测的VO2（max）分别为21.6±5.7和17.9±5.1 mL·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹，与测量值21.7±4.8和17.3±4.0相比，差异无统计学意义。ACSM高估了男性和女性的VO2（max），分别为26.3±8.2和20.9±7.3。通过布兰德-奥特曼图分析，ACSM在身体状况较好的女性中显示出显著的高估偏差（r = 0.29），而福斯特方程在两种性别中均未显示出估计偏差。VO2（max）的显著预测因素为性别、体重指数（BMI）、年龄、跑步机坡度和速度，方程的决定系数R²为0.70。当前活动水平的一项指标未纳入最终模型（P = 0.0505），但使用比我们的方法更敏感的测量方法时值得未来考虑。
在对老年人进行跑步机测试时，ACSM不适宜使用。我们认为福斯特方程对VO2（max）的预测准确性是可以接受的，在有氧能力的连续范围内未显示出偏差。
