Ferguson Eamonn, James David, O'Hehir Fiona, Sanders Andrea, McManus I C
School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD.
BMJ. 2003 Feb 22;326(7386):429-32. doi: 10.1136/bmj.326.7386.429.
To compare the power of three traditional selection procedures (A levels, personal statements, and references) and one non-traditional selection procedure (personality) to predict performance over the five years of a medical degree.
Cohort study over five years.
Nottingham medical school.
Entrants in 1995.
A level grades, amounts of information contained in teacher's reference and the student's personal statement, and personality scores examined in relation to 18 different assessments.
Information in the teacher's reference did not consistently predict performance. Information in the personal statement was predictive of clinical aspects of training, whereas A level grades primarily predicted preclinical performance. The personality domain of conscientiousness was consistently the best predictor across the course. A structural model indicated that conscientiousness was positively related to A level grades and preclinical performance but was negatively related to clinical grades.
A teacher's reference is of no practical use in predicting clinical performance of medical students, in contrast to the amount of information contained in the personal statement. Therefore, simple quantification of the personal statement should aid selection. Personality factors, in particular conscientiousness, need to be considered and integrated into selection procedures.
比较三种传统选拔程序（A 级水平考试成绩、个人陈述和推荐信）以及一种非传统选拔程序（性格）对医学学位五年学习期间表现的预测能力。
为期五年的队列研究。
诺丁汉医学院。
1995年入学的学生。
A级水平考试成绩、教师推荐信和学生个人陈述中包含的信息量，以及与18项不同评估相关的性格得分。
教师推荐信中的信息并不能始终如一地预测学生表现。个人陈述中的信息可预测培训的临床方面，而A级水平考试成绩主要预测临床前的表现。尽责性这一性格领域在整个课程中始终是最佳预测指标。一个结构模型表明，尽责性与A级水平考试成绩和临床前表现呈正相关，但与临床成绩呈负相关。
与个人陈述中包含的信息量相比，教师推荐信对预测医学生的临床表现在实际中并无用处。因此，对个人陈述进行简单量化应有助于选拔。性格因素，尤其是尽责性，需要被考虑并纳入选拔程序。
