Finkelstein M S
Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of the Free State, PO Box 339, 9300 Bloemfontein, Republic of South Africa.
Lifetime Data Anal. 2003 Mar;9(1):93-109. doi: 10.1023/a:1021886207236.
A probabilistic model of aging is considered. It is based on the assumption that a random resource, a stochastic process of aging (wear) and the corresponding anti-aging process are embedded at birth. A death occurs when the accumulated wear exceeds the initial random resource. It is assumed that the anti-aging process decreases wear in each increment. The impact of environment (lifestyle) is also taken into account. The corresponding relations for the observed and the conditional hazard rate (force of mortality) are obtained. Similar to some demographic models, the deceleration of mortality phenomenon is explained via the concept of frailty. Simple examples are considered.
考虑了一种衰老的概率模型。它基于这样的假设：出生时就嵌入了一种随机资源、一个衰老（损耗）的随机过程以及相应的抗衰过程。当累积损耗超过初始随机资源时就会发生死亡。假定抗衰过程在每个增量中都会减少损耗。还考虑了环境（生活方式）的影响。得到了观察到的和条件风险率（死亡率）的相应关系。与一些人口统计学模型类似，通过脆弱性的概念来解释死亡率下降现象。给出了一些简单的例子。
