Vaupel J W, Manton K G, Stallard E
Demography. 1979 Aug;16(3):439-54.
Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.
生命表方法是针对其成员在长寿禀赋方面存在差异的人群而开发的。与忽略这种异质性的标准方法不同，这些方法使用不同的计算来构建队列、时期和个体生命表。结果表明，标准方法高估了当前的预期寿命以及健康和安全干预措施在预期寿命方面的潜在收益，同时低估了个体衰老率、过去在降低死亡率方面取得的进展以及不同人群之间的死亡率差异。基于瑞典死亡率数据的计算表明，这些误差可能很重要，尤其是在老年人群中。
