MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2003 Feb 14;52(6):101-4, 106.
The median age of the world's population is increasing because of a decline in fertility and a 20-year increase in the average life span during the second half of the 20th century. These factors, combined with elevated fertility in many countries during the 2 decades after World War II (i.e., the "Baby Boom"), will result in increased numbers of persons aged > or = 65 years during 2010-2030. Worldwide, the average life span is expected to extend another 10 years by 2050. The growing number of older adults increases demands on the public health system and on medical and social services. Chronic diseases, which affect older adults disproportionately, contribute to disability, diminish quality of life, and increased health- and long-term-care costs. Increased life expectancy reflects, in part, the success of public health interventions, but public health programs must now respond to the challenges created by this achievement, including the growing burden of chronic illnesses, injuries, and disabilities and increasing concerns about future caregiving and healthcare costs. This report presents data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the World Health Organization, and the United Nations on U.S. and global trends in aging, including demographic and epidemiologic transitions, increasing medical and social costs related to aging, and the implications for public health.
由于生育率下降以及20世纪后半叶平均寿命延长20岁,世界人口的年龄中位数正在上升。这些因素,再加上二战后20年里许多国家的高生育率(即“婴儿潮”),将导致2010年至2030年期间65岁及以上人口数量增加。在全球范围内,预计到2050年平均寿命将再延长10年。老年人数量的不断增加对公共卫生系统以及医疗和社会服务提出了更高要求。慢性病对老年人的影响尤为严重,会导致残疾、降低生活质量,并增加医疗和长期护理成本。预期寿命的延长部分反映了公共卫生干预措施的成功,但公共卫生项目现在必须应对这一成就带来的挑战,包括慢性病、伤害和残疾负担的增加,以及对未来护理和医疗成本的日益担忧。本报告展示了美国人口普查局、世界卫生组织和联合国提供的关于美国和全球老龄化趋势的数据,包括人口结构和流行病学转变、与老龄化相关的医疗和社会成本增加,以及对公共卫生的影响。