Kincannon Charles Louis, He Wan, West Loraine A
U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233-8860, USA.
J Cross Cult Gerontol. 2005 Sep;20(3):243-55. doi: 10.1007/s10823-006-9015-1.
Today China has the world's largest older population, defined as aged 65 and over. The size of the older population in the United States is also large, ranking third in the world in 2000. The combined older populations of China and the United States represented 29 percent of the world's population 65 and older in 2000. The large older populations in these two countries are projected to more than double in size over the next three decades. Although currently China is younger than the United States and many other countries, its aging process will accelerate in the next few decades, with a speed surpassing the experience of many Western European countries and the United States. This paper examines the current and future situation of the older population in China and compares China's aging with that of the United States, using 2000 and earlier censuses from both countries as well as the population projections data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Growth of the older population, changes in the age distribution in China with comparisons to the United States, and the projections of the older population's future growth are analyzed and presented. The paper also discusses sources of financial support and living arrangements in China and the United States. Finally, the paper assesses trends in the older population support ratio and the implications for the economic well-being of an aging population.
如今，中国拥有世界上规模最大的老年人口（定义为65岁及以上）。美国的老年人口规模也很大，在2000年位居世界第三。2000年，中国和美国的老年人口总和占全球65岁及以上人口的29%。预计在未来三十年里，这两个国家庞大的老年人口规模将增长一倍多。尽管目前中国比美国及许多其他国家更年轻，但其老龄化进程将在未来几十年加速，速度超过许多西欧国家和美国。本文利用中美两国2000年及更早的人口普查数据以及美国人口普查局的人口预测数据，研究中国老年人口的现状和未来情况，并将中国的老龄化与美国进行比较。分析并呈现了中国老年人口的增长、与美国相比年龄分布的变化以及老年人口未来增长的预测。本文还讨论了中美两国的经济支持来源和居住安排。最后，本文评估了老年抚养比的趋势及其对老龄化人口经济福祉的影响。
