Semazzi Fredrick
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, 27695, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Environ Int. 2003 Jun;29(2-3):253-61. doi: 10.1016/S0160-4120(02)00184-8.
A major component of climate change is a manifestation of changes in air quality. This paper explores the question of air quality from the climate change modelling perspective. It reviews recent research advances on the cause-effect relationships between atmospheric air composition and climate change, primarily based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of climate change over the past decade. There is a growing degree of confidence that the warming world over the past century was caused by human-related changes in the composition of air. Reliability of projections of future climate change is highly dependent on future emission scenarios that have been identified that in turn depend on a multitude of complicated interacting social-economic factors. Anticipated improvements in the performance of climate models is a major source of optimism for better climate projections in the future, but the real benefits of its contribution will be closely coupled with other sources of uncertainty, and in particular emission projections.
气候变化的一个主要组成部分是空气质量变化的表现。本文从气候变化建模的角度探讨空气质量问题。它回顾了大气成分与气候变化之间因果关系的最新研究进展,主要基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)对过去十年气候变化的评估。人们越来越相信,过去一个世纪全球变暖是由与人类相关的空气成分变化引起的。未来气候变化预测的可靠性高度依赖于已确定的未来排放情景,而这些情景又取决于众多复杂的相互作用的社会经济因素。气候模型性能的预期改善是对未来更好的气候预测感到乐观的一个主要来源,但其贡献的实际益处将与其他不确定性来源紧密相关,尤其是排放预测。