Baldwin Mark P, Stephenson David B, Thompson David W J, Dunkerton Timothy J, Charlton Andrew J, O'Neill Alan
Northwest Research Associates, 14508 NE 20th Street, Bellevue, WA, 98007, USA.
Science. 2003 Aug 1;301(5633):636-40. doi: 10.1126/science.1087143.
We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.
我们使用一个经验统计模型来证明在进行月平均北极涛动（AO）的延伸期预报方面具有显著技能。预报技能源于平流层最下层持续的环流异常，且在北半球冬季最为显著。与南半球的比较表明，北极涛动的时间尺度和可预报性都取决于对流层顶上方持续环流异常的存在。这些环流异常很可能通过对流层上层波动的变化影响对流层，进而引起与北极涛动相对应的地面气压变化。
