Jiang Ning, Zhu Congwen, Hu Zeng-Zhen, McPhaden Michael J, Chen Deliang, Liu Boqi, Ma Shuangmei, Yan Yuhan, Zhou Tianjun, Qian Weihong, Luo Jingjia, Yang Xiuqun, Liu Fei, Zhu Yuejian
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 29;14(1):2521. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-52846-2.
In 2023, the development of El Niño is poised to drive a global upsurge in surface air temperatures (SAT), potentially resulting in unprecedented warming worldwide. Nevertheless, the regional patterns of SAT anomalies remain diverse, obscuring where historical warming records may be surpassed in the forthcoming year. Our study underscores the significant influence of El Niño and the persistence of climate signals on the inter-annual variability of regional SAT, both in amplitude and spatial distribution. The likelihood of global mean SAT exceeding historical records, calculated from July 2023 to June 2024, is estimated at 90%, contingent upon annual-mean sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 0.6 °C. Regions particularly susceptible to recording record-high SAT include coastal and adjacent areas in Asia such as the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, as well as Alaska, the Caribbean Sea, and the Amazon. This impending warmth heightens the risk of year-round marine heatwaves and escalates the threat of wildfires and other negative consequences in Alaska and the Amazon basin, necessitating strategic mitigation measures to minimize potential worst-case impacts.
2023年，厄尔尼诺现象的发展有可能推动全球地表气温（SAT）急剧上升，可能导致全球范围内出现前所未有的变暖。然而，SAT异常的区域模式仍然多种多样，这使得人们难以确定在来年哪些地区的历史变暖记录可能会被打破。我们的研究强调了厄尔尼诺现象和气候信号的持续性对区域SAT年际变化在幅度和空间分布上的重大影响。根据计算，从2023年7月到2024年6月，全球平均SAT超过历史记录的可能性估计为90%，条件是赤道东太平洋的年平均海表温度异常超过0.6°C。特别容易出现创纪录高SAT的地区包括亚洲的沿海及相邻地区，如孟加拉湾和南海，以及阿拉斯加、加勒比海和亚马逊地区。这种即将到来的温暖加剧了全年出现海洋热浪的风险，并增加了阿拉斯加和亚马逊流域发生野火及其他负面后果的威胁，因此需要采取战略缓解措施，以尽量减少潜在的最坏情况影响。
