Department of Physics, University of Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain.
Department of Physics, University of Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain.
Environ Res. 2021 Mar;194:110626. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110626. Epub 2020 Dec 17.
The current pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. Subsequently, it spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, e.g., in terms of air temperature and humidity among other factors, in Italy and Spain for a quicker spread of the virus compared with the rest of the European countries. It seems plausible that the strong atmospheric stability and associated dry conditions that dominated in these regions may have favored the virus propagation, both outdoors and especially indoors, by short-range droplet and aerosol (airborne) transmission, or/and by changing social contact patterns. Later recent atmospheric circulation conditions in Europe (July 2020) and the U.S. (October 2020) seem to support our hypothesis, although further research is needed in order to evaluate other confounding variables. Interestingly, the atmospheric conditions during the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 seem to have resembled at some stage with the current COVID-19 pandemic.
当前由严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)引起的 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行在全球范围内造成了负面的健康、社会和经济后果。在欧洲,该大流行病于 2020 年 2 月底和 3 月初开始急剧发展。随后,它在欧洲大陆蔓延,在意大利北部和西班牙内陆地区具有特殊的毒力。在这项研究中,我们表明,2020 年 2 月期间在欧洲西南部普遍存在的异常持续反气旋情况(即北大西洋和北极涛动的异常强正相位)可能导致了有利条件,例如意大利和西班牙的空气温度和湿度等因素,与欧洲其他国家相比,病毒更容易传播。强烈的大气稳定性和相关的干燥条件可能有利于病毒在这些地区的传播,无论是在户外还是特别在室内,通过短程飞沫和气溶胶(空气传播)传播,或者/和通过改变社会接触模式,这似乎是合理的。后来,欧洲(2020 年 7 月)和美国(2020 年 10 月)的近期大气环流条件似乎支持我们的假设,但需要进一步研究以评估其他混杂变量。有趣的是,1918 年西班牙流感大流行期间的大气条件在某些阶段似乎与当前的 COVID-19 大流行相似。