两个德国的性别比例：经济压力假说的检验

Sex ratios in the two Germanies: a test of the economic stress hypothesis.

作者信息

Catalano Ralph A

机构信息

University of California at Berkeley, School of Public Health, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.

出版信息

Hum Reprod. 2003 Sep;18(9):1972-5. doi: 10.1093/humrep/deg370.

DOI:10.1093/humrep/deg370

PMID:12923159

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Literature describing temporal variation in the secondary sex ratio among humans reports an association between population stressors and declines in the odds of male birth. Explanations of this phenomenon draw on reports that stressed females spontaneously abort male more than female fetuses, and that stressed males exhibit reduced sperm motility. This work has led to the argument that population stress induced by a declining economy reduces the human sex ratio. No direct test of this hypothesis appears in the literature. Here, a test is offered based on a comparison of the sex ratio in East and West Germany for the years 1946 to 1999. The theory suggests that the East German sex ratio should be lower in 1991, when East Germany's economy collapsed, than expected from its own history and from the sex ratio in West Germany.

METHODS

The hypothesis is tested using time-series modelling methods.

RESULTS

The data support the hypothesis. The sex ratio in East Germany was at its lowest in 1991.

CONCLUSION

This first direct test supports the hypothesis that economic decline reduces the human sex ratio.

摘要

背景

描述人类出生性别比随时间变化的文献报道了人口压力源与男婴出生几率下降之间的关联。对这一现象的解释基于以下报道：压力大的女性自然流产男胎的比例高于女胎，以及压力大的男性精子活力降低。这项研究引发了一种观点，即经济衰退导致的人口压力会降低人类的性别比。文献中似乎没有对这一假设进行直接检验。在此，基于对1946年至1999年东德和西德性别比的比较进行了一次检验。该理论表明，1991年东德经济崩溃时，其性别比应低于根据其自身历史以及西德性别比所预期的水平。