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出生时人类性别比例的可观察变异。

Observable variations in human sex ratio at birth.

机构信息

Department of Chemistry, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America.

Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America.

出版信息

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Dec 2;17(12):e1009586. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009586. eCollection 2021 Dec.

Abstract

The human sex ratio at birth (SRB), defined as the ratio between the number of newborn boys to the total number of newborns, is typically slightly greater than 1/2 (more boys than girls) and tends to vary across different geographical regions and time periods. In this large-scale study, we sought to validate previously-reported associations and test new hypotheses using statistical analysis of two very large datasets incorporating electronic medical records (EMRs). One of the datasets represents over half (∼ 150 million) of the US population for over 8 years (IBM Watson Health MarketScan insurance claims) while another covers the entire Swedish population (∼ 9 million) for over 30 years (the Swedish National Patient Register). After testing more than 100 hypotheses, we showed that neither dataset supported models in which the SRB changed seasonally or in response to variations in ambient temperature. However, increased levels of a diverse array of air and water pollutants, were associated with lower SRBs, including increased levels of industrial and agricultural activity, which served as proxies for water pollution. Moreover, some exogenous factors generally considered to be environmental toxins turned out to induce higher SRBs. Finally, we identified new factors with signals for either higher or lower SRBs. In all cases, the effect sizes were modest but highly statistically significant owing to the large sizes of the two datasets. We suggest that while it was unlikely that the associations have arisen from sex-specific selection mechanisms, they are still useful for the purpose of public health surveillance if they can be corroborated by empirical evidences.

摘要

人类出生性别比(SRB)定义为新生男婴数与新生总数的比例,通常略大于 1/2(男孩多于女孩),并且倾向于在不同的地理区域和时间周期中变化。在这项大规模研究中,我们使用包含电子病历(EMR)的两个大型数据集的统计分析来验证先前报道的关联,并测试新的假设。其中一个数据集代表了超过一半(约 1.5 亿)的美国人口超过 8 年(IBM Watson Health MarketScan 保险索赔),另一个数据集涵盖了整个瑞典人口(约 900 万)超过 30 年(瑞典国家患者登记册)。在测试了 100 多个假设之后,我们表明,这两个数据集都不支持 SRB 季节性变化或对环境温度变化做出反应的模型。然而,多种空气和水污染物水平的增加与较低的 SRB 相关,包括工业和农业活动水平的增加,这些都可以作为水污染的代表。此外,一些通常被认为是环境毒素的外源性因素被证明会导致较高的 SRB。最后,我们确定了具有较高或较低 SRB 信号的新因素。在所有情况下,由于两个数据集的规模都很大,因此效应大小适中但具有高度统计学意义。我们认为,尽管这些关联不太可能是由于性别特异性选择机制引起的,但如果可以通过实证证据加以证实,它们仍然对公共卫生监测有用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a25f/8638995/6f474f57f7b5/pcbi.1009586.g001.jpg

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