Marco-Gracia Francisco J, Beltrán Tapia Francisco J, Liczbińska Grażyna
Department of Applied Economics and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain.
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
Hum Nat. 2025 Jun;36(2):281-306. doi: 10.1007/s12110-025-09496-8. Epub 2025 Jul 9.
This study examines the impact of pre-moder wars on sex ratios at birth. Specifically, it investigates whether wars involving premodern weaponry and more limited destruction increased stress for pregnant women such that the resulting hormonal changes in their bodies may have led to a decrease in the ratio of live-born boys to girls. To address this question, we analyzed all baptismal records from the Basque Country during the 19th century, encompassing nearly 1.2 million individuals. Our findings confirm that the First Carlist War (1833-1840) exercised the most significant demographic impact on the region. However, all wars resulted in variations in demographic behavior, reducing in sex ratios at birth by around 1%. This effect is even more pronounced when focusing on the main conflict zones, where sieges and major battles took place, leading to an impact of 3.2%. The effect was not only immediately visible in sex ratios at birth but became particularly evident during the first three months after the events. Furthermore, prolonged battles were found to have the most substantial influence, with an average effect during the three months after the battle of almost 7% on sex ratios at birth. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that premodern wars reduced sex ratios at birth.
本研究考察了近代早期战争对出生性别比的影响。具体而言,它调查了涉及前现代武器且破坏程度更有限的战争是否增加了孕妇的压力,以至于她们体内由此产生的荷尔蒙变化可能导致活产男婴与女婴的比例下降。为解决这个问题,我们分析了19世纪巴斯克地区的所有洗礼记录,涵盖了近120万人。我们的研究结果证实,第一次卡洛斯战争(1833 - 1840年)对该地区产生了最显著的人口统计学影响。然而,所有战争都导致了人口行为的变化,出生性别比下降了约1%。当关注发生围城和重大战役的主要冲突地区时,这种影响更为明显,导致出生性别比下降了3.2%。这种影响不仅在出生性别比上立即显现,而且在事件发生后的头三个月尤为明显。此外,长期战斗被发现具有最大的影响,战斗后三个月内对出生性别比的平均影响几乎达到7%。总之,我们的研究表明,近代早期战争降低了出生性别比。