Doyen L, Béné C
Centre International de Recherche pour l'Environnement et le Développement, Campus Jardin Tropical de Paris, 94736 Nogent sur Marne, France.
J Environ Manage. 2003 Sep;69(1):1-13. doi: 10.1016/s0301-4797(03)00004-5.
Among the many factors that contribute to overexploitation of marine fisheries, the role played by uncertainty is important. This uncertainty includes both the scientific uncertainties related to the resource dynamics or assessments and the uncontrollability of catches. Some recent works advocate for the use of marine reserves as a central element of future stock management. In the present paper, we study the influence of protected areas upon fisheries sustainability through a simple dynamic model integrating non-stochastic harvesting uncertainty and a constraint of safe minimum biomass level. Using the mathematical concept of invariance kernel in a robust and worst-case context, we examine through a formal modeling analysis how marine reserves might guarantee viable fisheries. We also show how sustainability requirement is not necessarily conflicting with optimization of catches. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the main findings.
在导致海洋渔业过度开发的众多因素中，不确定性所起的作用至关重要。这种不确定性既包括与资源动态或评估相关的科学不确定性，也包括渔获量的不可控性。近期的一些研究主张将海洋保护区作为未来种群管理的核心要素。在本文中，我们通过一个简单的动态模型来研究保护区对渔业可持续性的影响，该模型整合了非随机捕捞不确定性和安全最低生物量水平的约束条件。在稳健且最坏情况的背景下，利用不变核的数学概念，我们通过形式化建模分析来研究海洋保护区如何保障渔业的可行性。我们还表明，可持续性要求不一定与渔获量优化相冲突。提供了数值模拟以说明主要研究结果。
