Wirtz Derrick, Kruger Justin, Napa Scollon Christie, Diener Ed
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL 61820, USA.
Psychol Sci. 2003 Sep;14(5):520-4. doi: 10.1111/1467-9280.03455.
When individuals choose future activities on the basis of their past experiences, what guides those choices? The present study compared students' predicted, on-line, and remembered spring-break experiences, as well as the influence of these factors on students' desire to take a similar vacation in the future. Predicted and remembered experiences were both more positive-and, paradoxically, more negative-than on-line experiences. Of key importance, path analyses revealed that remembered experience, but neither on-line nor anticipated experience, directly predicted the desire to repeat the experience. These results suggest that although on-line measures may be superior to retrospective measures for approximating objective experience, retrospective measures may be superior for predicting choice.
当个体根据过去的经历来选择未来的活动时，是什么在引导这些选择呢？本研究比较了学生对春假经历的预测、实时体验和回忆，以及这些因素对学生未来想要进行类似假期的意愿的影响。预测和回忆的经历都比实时体验更积极——而且矛盾的是，也更消极。至关重要的是，路径分析表明，回忆的经历直接预测了重复该经历的意愿，而实时体验和预期体验均无此作用。这些结果表明，虽然在线测量在近似客观体验方面可能优于回顾性测量，但回顾性测量在预测选择方面可能更具优势。
