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原子弹幸存者后代中与辐射相关的死亡率:半个世纪的随访

Radiation-related mortality among offspring of atomic bomb survivors: a half-century of follow-up.

作者信息

Izumi Shizue, Suyama Akihiko, Koyama Kojiro

机构信息

Department of Statistics, Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima, Japan.

出版信息

Int J Cancer. 2003 Nov 1;107(2):292-7. doi: 10.1002/ijc.11400.

Abstract

Our objective was to examine whether parental exposure to atomic bomb radiation has led to increased cancer and/or noncancer mortality rates among the offspring. We studied 41,010 subjects born from May 1946 through December 1984 (i.e., conceived between 1 month and 38 years after the bombings) and surviving for at least 1 year. One or both parents were in Hiroshima or Nagasaki at the time of the bombings and childbirth. We analyzed mortality data from 1946 to 1999 using the Japanese family registry system by Cox regression model and examined the effects of paternal and maternal irradiation with adjustment for city, sex, year of birth and parental age at childbirth. During follow-up, 314 cancer deaths and 1,125 noncancer disease deaths occurred. The mean age of living subjects was 45.7 years. Median doses were 143 mSv for 12,722 exposed fathers and 132 mSv for 7,726 exposed mothers. Cancer and noncancer mortality rates were no higher for subjects with exposed parents (5+ mSv or unknown dose) than for reference subjects (0-4 mSv), and mortality did not increase with increasing dose. For subjects with both parents exposed, the adjusted hazard ratios were 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.46] for noncancer and 0.96 (95% CI 0.59-1.55) for cancer. This was true of deaths occurring both before and after 20 years of age. However, because of uncertainty due to the small number of deaths and relatively young ages of subjects, we cannot rule out an increase in disease mortality at this time.

摘要

我们的目的是研究父母暴露于原子弹辐射是否会导致后代癌症和/或非癌症死亡率上升。我们研究了1946年5月至1984年12月出生(即原子弹爆炸后1个月至38年受孕)且存活至少1年的41,010名受试者。在原子弹爆炸和分娩时,父母一方或双方身处广岛或长崎。我们使用日本家庭登记系统,通过Cox回归模型分析了1946年至1999年的死亡率数据,并在调整城市、性别、出生年份和父母分娩时年龄的基础上,研究了父亲和母亲受辐射的影响。在随访期间,发生了314例癌症死亡和1,125例非癌症疾病死亡。存活受试者的平均年龄为45.7岁。12,722名受辐射父亲的中位剂量为143毫希沃特,7,726名受辐射母亲的中位剂量为132毫希沃特。父母受辐射的受试者(5毫希沃特及以上或剂量未知)的癌症和非癌症死亡率并不高于参照受试者(0 - 4毫希沃特),且死亡率并未随剂量增加而上升。对于父母双方均受辐射的受试者,非癌症的调整后风险比为1.16 [95%置信区间(CI)0.92 - 1.46],癌症为0.96(95% CI 0.59 - 1.55)。20岁之前和之后发生的死亡情况均如此。然而,由于死亡人数较少且受试者年龄相对较小导致存在不确定性,我们目前无法排除疾病死亡率上升的可能性。

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