Durant Joël M, Anker-Nilssen Tycho, Stenseth Nils Chr
Centre d'Ecologie et Physiologie Energétique, CNRS, 23 Rue Becquerel, F-67087 Strasbourg Cedex 02, France.
Proc Biol Sci. 2003 Jul 22;270(1523):1461-6. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2003.2397.
Co-occurrence in food requirements of offspring and food availability is a key factor determining breeding success. Prey availability is typically dependent on environmental conditions that are different from those influencing the predator's decision regarding whether or not to initiate breeding, and is not always optimal at the peak of reproduction requirements. We investigated this relationship to understand better what determines the fledging success of the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica). Colony data from Røst (northern Norway) covering a period of 27 years were analysed with parallel data on sea temperature and the size and abundance of the puffins' main prey (the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, Clupea harengus). By fitting statistical models to the fledging success, we found that one effect of climate on this population of Atlantic puffins is indirect and mediated by sea temperature affecting the availability of first-year herring. The best model also demonstrates that the breeding success of the Røst puffins may be quantitatively predicted from the size of first-year herring and sea temperature.
后代的食物需求与食物可获得性的同时出现是决定繁殖成功的关键因素。猎物的可获得性通常取决于与影响捕食者是否开始繁殖的决定的环境条件不同的环境条件，并且在繁殖需求的高峰期并不总是最佳的。我们研究了这种关系，以便更好地了解是什么决定了大西洋海雀（角嘴海雀）的出飞成功率。分析了来自罗斯特（挪威北部）长达27年的殖民地数据，并结合了海温以及海雀主要猎物（挪威春季产卵鲱鱼，大西洋鲱）的大小和丰度的平行数据。通过对出飞成功率拟合统计模型，我们发现气候对这一大西洋海雀种群的一个影响是间接的，并且是由影响一岁鲱鱼可获得性的海温介导的。最佳模型还表明，可以根据一岁鲱鱼的大小和海温对罗斯特海雀的繁殖成功率进行定量预测。
