Loos Christine, Seppelt Ralf, Meier-Bethke Sara, Schiemann Joachim, Richter Otto
Department of Environmental System Analysis, Institute of Geoecology, Technical University of Braunschweig, Langer Kamp 19c, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany.
J Theor Biol. 2003 Nov 21;225(2):241-55. doi: 10.1016/s0022-5193(03)00243-1.
Modelling of pollen dispersal and cross-pollination is of great importance for the ongoing discussion on thresholds for the adventitious presence of genetically modified material in food and feed. Two different modelling approaches for pollen dispersal are used to simulate the cross-pollination rate of pollen emerged from an adjacent transgenic crop field. The models are applied to cross-pollination data from field experiments with transgenic maize (Zea mays). The data were generated by an experimental setup specifically designed to suit the demands of mathematical modelling. First a Gaussian plume model is used for the simulation of pollen transport in and from plant canopies. This is a semiempirical approach combining the atmospheric diffusion equation and Lagrangian methodology. The second model is derived from the localised near field (LNF) theory and based on the physical processes in the canopy. Both modelling approaches prove to be appropriate for the simulation of the cross-pollination rates at distances of about 7.5m and more from the transgene source. The simulation of the cross-pollination rate is less precise at the edge of the source plot especially with the LNF theory. However, the simulation results lie within the range of variability of the observations. Concluding can be pointed out that both models might be adapted to other pollen dispersal experiments of different crops and plot sizes.
花粉传播和异花授粉的建模对于当前关于食品和饲料中转基因物质偶然存在阈值的讨论至关重要。两种不同的花粉传播建模方法被用于模拟来自相邻转基因作物田的花粉的异花授粉率。这些模型被应用于转基因玉米（Zea mays）田间试验的异花授粉数据。这些数据是通过专门为满足数学建模需求而设计的实验装置生成的。首先，一个高斯烟羽模型被用于模拟花粉在植物冠层内外的传输。这是一种将大气扩散方程和拉格朗日方法相结合的半经验方法。第二个模型源自局部近场（LNF）理论，并基于冠层中的物理过程。两种建模方法都被证明适用于模拟距离转基因源约7.5米及更远距离处的异花授粉率。在源区边缘，异花授粉率的模拟不太精确，特别是使用LNF理论时。然而，模拟结果处于观测值的变化范围内。可以得出结论，这两种模型都可能适用于不同作物和地块大小的其他花粉传播实验。
