Quantification of the effect of control strategies on classical swine fever epidemics.

Emergency vaccination during an epidemic of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) has become a serious option because of the ethical problems of strategies with massive culling and the availability of a marker vaccine that reduces virus transmission. Here we present a model of between-herd CSFV transmission, which quantifies the effect of control strategies with and without vaccination. We estimate the model parameters from data of the Dutch CSFV epidemic of 1997/1998. With the model, a set of control strategies is compared, consisting of five control measures in several combinations. Consequently, the following general requirements of successful strategies can be formulated. First, to achieve extinction of a CSFV epidemic, transmission through transport should be prevented and the indirect virus transmission, i.e. all transmission not through animal contacts, should at least be halved, either by vaccination or by culling of the susceptible pig population. Second, to minimize the size and duration of an epidemic, the extinction requirements should be met quickly and indirect virus transmission should be reduced by far more than a half. Although the origin of the model parameters let the requirements in fact be only applicable for the south-eastern part of the Netherlands, it is argued that epidemics in other areas will not need stricter control strategies.