Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Chalongkrung Road, Ladkrabang, Bangkok 10520, Thailand.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University, Nakhon Pathom 73000, Thailand ; Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2014;2014:487974. doi: 10.1155/2014/487974. Epub 2014 Mar 13.
The respiratory disease caused by the Influenza A Virus is occurring worldwide. The transmission for new strain of the H1N1 Influenza A virus is studied by formulating a SEIQR (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantine, and recovered) model to describe its spread. In the present model, we have assumed that a fraction of the infected population will die from the disease. This changes the mathematical equations governing the transmission. The effect of repetitive contact is also included in the model. Analysis of the model by using standard dynamical modeling method is given. Conditions for the stability of equilibrium state are given. Numerical solutions are presented for different values of parameters. It is found that increasing the amount of repetitive contacts leads to a decrease in the peak numbers of exposed and infectious humans. A stability analysis shows that the solutions are robust.
甲型流感病毒引起的呼吸道疾病正在全球范围内发生。为了研究新型 H1N1 甲型流感病毒的传播，我们通过建立 SEIQR（易感、暴露、感染、检疫和恢复）模型来描述其传播。在目前的模型中，我们假设感染人群中的一部分将死于该疾病。这会改变控制疾病传播的数学方程。该模型还包括了反复接触的影响。使用标准的动力学建模方法对模型进行了分析。给出了平衡状态稳定性的条件。针对不同参数值给出了数值解。研究发现，增加反复接触的次数会导致暴露和感染人群的峰值数量减少。稳定性分析表明，这些解决方案是稳健的。
