Cohen Joel E
Rockefeller University and Columbia University, 1230 New York Avenue, Box 20, New York, NY 10021, USA.
Science. 2003 Nov 14;302(5648):1172-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1088665.
By 2050, the human population will probably be larger by 2 to 4 billion people, more slowly growing (declining in the more developed regions), more urban, especially in less developed regions, and older than in the 20th century. Two major demographic uncertainties in the next 50 years concern international migration and the structure of families. Economies, nonhuman environments, and cultures (including values, religions, and politics) strongly influence demographic changes. Hence, human choices, individual and collective, will have demographic effects, intentional or otherwise.
到2050年,全球人口可能会增加20亿至40亿,人口增长速度放缓(在较发达地区呈下降趋势),城市化程度更高,尤其是在欠发达地区,而且人口年龄结构比20世纪更老。未来50年,人口统计学面临的两大不确定性涉及国际移民和家庭结构。经济、非人类环境和文化(包括价值观、宗教和政治)对人口变化有重大影响。因此,个人和集体做出的人类选择,无论有意与否,都会对人口结构产生影响。