Karl Thomas R, Trenberth Kevin E
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Satellite and Information Services, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC, 28801-5001, USA.
Science. 2003 Dec 5;302(5651):1719-23. doi: 10.1126/science.1090228.
Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.
现代气候变化主要受人类影响,目前这种影响已大到足以超出自然变率的范围。全球气候变化的主要源头是人类活动导致的大气成分变化。这些扰动主要源于与能源使用相关的排放,但在地方和区域尺度上,城市化和土地利用变化也很重要。尽管在监测和理解气候变化方面已取得进展,但在精确规划、适应和减轻气候变化影响方面,仍存在许多科学、技术和体制障碍。对于预期的变化速率仍存在相当大的不确定性,但很明显,这些变化将越来越多地以重要且切实的方式显现出来,比如温度和降水极值的变化、季节性和常年积雪及冰盖范围的减少以及海平面上升。人为引起的气候变化现在可能会持续许多个世纪。我们正在涉足气候这一未知领域,其相关影响可能极具破坏性。