White Robin R, Hall Mary Beth
School of Animal Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061.
United States Dairy Forage Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Madison, WI 53706.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Dec 10;121(50):e2319011121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2319011121. Epub 2024 Dec 2.
Reduced consumption of animal-sourced food (ASF) has been recommended for environmental and human health objectives; however, ASF can be important for food security and diet affordability. We explored country-level relationships among various metrics of food supply, socioeconomic context, food security, diet affordability, and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) to characterize how optimal inclusion ranges for ASF vary with socioeconomic factors and food system goals. Data from 2015 to 2022 for 153 countries were sourced to generate Bayesian Networks representing relationships among the studied food system metrics. Networks were used in simulations to characterize optimal ASF inclusion to achieve environmental, food security, or diet affordability goals based on individual country data. Results are most appropriately interpreted in aggregate rather than as representations of specific countries due in large part to data limitations. Across countries simulated, median total ASF inclusion in the food supply to support food security, GHGe, or affordability objectives was 18.2% ± 12.1%, 11.9% ± 6.8%, and 17.6% ± 8.5%, respectively. Joint optimization for these goals resulted in median ASF inclusion of 15.1% ± 7.2%, with notable regional differences. Although ASF increases were supported in most developing regions, decreases were supported in developed countries. The reported SD in optimal ASF inclusion were considerable, and represented between-country variation. Empirical relationships of food categories to goals consistently favored dairy and egg products over meats. These results support previous literature highlighting the environmental intensity of ASF, but also indicate that moderate ASF supplies contribute to multiple food system goals simultaneously.
为实现环境和人类健康目标，人们建议减少动物源性食品（ASF）的消费；然而，ASF对粮食安全和饮食可承受性可能很重要。我们探讨了粮食供应、社会经济背景、粮食安全、饮食可承受性和农业温室气体排放（GHGe）等各种指标之间的国家层面关系，以描述ASF的最佳纳入范围如何随社会经济因素和粮食系统目标而变化。我们获取了153个国家2015年至2022年的数据，以生成代表所研究粮食系统指标之间关系的贝叶斯网络。这些网络被用于模拟，以根据各国数据描述实现环境、粮食安全或饮食可承受性目标的最佳ASF纳入情况。由于数据限制，大部分结果最适合综合解释，而非作为特定国家的代表。在模拟的各国中，为支持粮食安全、GHGe或可承受性目标，粮食供应中ASF的总纳入中位数分别为18.2%±12.1%、11.9%±6.8%和17.6%±8.5%。对这些目标进行联合优化后，ASF纳入中位数为15.1%±7.2%，存在显著的区域差异。尽管大多数发展中地区支持增加ASF，但发达国家则支持减少。报告的最佳ASF纳入的标准差相当大，代表了国家间的差异。食品类别与目标之间的实证关系始终表明，乳制品和蛋类产品比肉类更受青睐。这些结果支持了之前强调ASF环境强度的文献，但也表明适度的ASF供应能同时促进多个粮食系统目标的实现。
