Rahbarinejad Pegah, Sobhani Seyyed Reza, Sangsefidi Negar, Irankhah Kiyavash, Mohamadinarab Maryam
Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Student Research Committee, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Jul 2;25(1):2289. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-23437-1.
The nutrition transition-a global shift toward refined, low-fiber diets-is driven by urbanization and economic development, with significant implications for food security. In Iran, where economic volatility (e.g., inflation, sanctions and GDP fluctuations) has altered dietary habits, this study aims to quantify the association of socio-economic and environmental factors with household food consumption patterns. Understanding these dynamics is critical for designing policies that ensure equitable access to healthy diets amid rapid transitions.
We analyzed secondary data from Iran's annual Household Income and Expenditure Survey (1991-2019; n = 756,232 households), using a three-stage cluster sampling method to ensure national representativeness. Key variables included urbanization rates, gross domestic product (GDP), food production, inflation, and precipitation, with food consumption measured in daily Adult Male Equivalent (AME) units and categorized into six dietary groups (including; grains, vegetables, fruits, dairy, fats, and meats). Time series regression with ARIMA errors (R 4.1.2) identified drivers of consumption trends.
In present study, urbanization was positively associated with meat (r = 0.135, P < 0.001) and vegetable (r = 0.086, P = 0.020) consumptions, however negatively associated with grains (r = -0.317, P = 0.025), fruits (r = -0.037, P < 0.001), and dairy (r = -0.0571, P = 0.012) intake. GDP growth raised fruit (r = 0.00007, P = 0.005) and meat (r = 0.00008, P = 0.030) consumptions while lowering grain reliance (r = -0.0007, P = 0.020). Qualitative insights revealed that urban households prioritized convenience and protein-rich foods, whereas rural diets remained grain-heavy due to cost constraints. Inflation increased grain consumption (staple reliance) (r = 0.025, P = 0.003) but decreased fruit intake (r = -0.009, P = 0.007). Additionally, higher precipitation boosted grain consumption (r = 0.004, P = 0.001).
Iran's nutrition transition is strongly tied to socio-economic shifts: urbanization and GDP growth favor diversified diets, while inflation exacerbates reliance on cheap staples. Policymakers must prioritize (1) subsidies for nutrient-rich foods, (2) nutrition education, and (3) climate-resilient agriculture to mitigate dietary inequities. These findings offer a template for other economies facing similar transitions.
营养转型——全球向精制、低纤维饮食的转变——是由城市化和经济发展推动的，对粮食安全具有重大影响。在伊朗，经济波动（如通货膨胀、制裁和国内生产总值波动）改变了饮食习惯，本研究旨在量化社会经济和环境因素与家庭食物消费模式之间的关联。了解这些动态对于制定政策以确保在快速转型过程中公平获取健康饮食至关重要。
我们分析了伊朗年度家庭收入和支出调查（1991 - 2019年；n = 756,232户家庭）的二手数据，采用三阶段整群抽样方法以确保全国代表性。关键变量包括城市化率、国内生产总值（GDP）、粮食产量、通货膨胀和降水量，食物消费以每日成年男性当量（AME）单位衡量，并分为六个饮食组（包括谷物、蔬菜、水果、乳制品、脂肪和肉类）。带有自回归移动平均（ARIMA）误差的时间序列回归（R 4.1.2）确定了消费趋势的驱动因素。
在本研究中，城市化与肉类（r = 0.135，P < 0.001）和蔬菜（r = 0.086，P = 0.020）消费呈正相关，但与谷物（r = -0.317，P = 0.025）、水果（r = -0.037，P < 0.001）和乳制品（r = -0.0571，P = 0.012）摄入量呈负相关。GDP增长提高了水果（r = 0.00007，P = 0.005）和肉类（r = 0.00008，P = 0.030）的消费量，同时降低了对谷物的依赖（r = -0.0007，P = 0.020）。定性分析表明，城市家庭优先选择方便食品和富含蛋白质的食物，而农村饮食由于成本限制仍然以谷物为主。通货膨胀增加了谷物消费（主食依赖）（r = 0.025，P = 0.003），但减少了水果摄入量（r = -0.009，P = 0.007）。此外，降水量增加促进了谷物消费（r = 0.004，P = 0.001）。
伊朗的营养转型与社会经济转变密切相关：城市化和GDP增长有利于多样化饮食，而通货膨胀加剧了对廉价主食的依赖。政策制定者必须优先考虑（1）对营养丰富食品的补贴，（2）营养教育，以及（3）气候适应型农业，以减轻饮食不平等。这些发现为其他面临类似转型的经济体提供了一个模板。
