Johnson Eric, Heinen Russell
Atlantic Consulting, Obstgartenstrasse 14, CH-8136 Gattikon, Switzerland.
Environ Int. 2004 Apr;30(2):279-88. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.001.
Carbon trading is no longer just theory. Infant markets already exist and, in 2002, they traded perhaps $10 million worth of emissions allowances. We estimate conservatively that, by 2010, the EU scheme will trade as much as $1 billion in allowances each year. The motor of the carbon markets is a worldwide effort to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Its most visible symbol is the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, formally known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Even if Kyoto is not ratified and, despite the US's decision to opt out of the treaty, the genie of greenhouse-gas reduction is out of the bottle. We believe that trading of greenhouse gases will be a real, day-to-day activity by 2010, almost certainly in Europe and probably in Canada and Japan. Carbon trading in these areas will affect the US, whether or not America sets up a programme of its own. The conclusion of this study is that industry should get involved in defining carbon trading-and now-to advance and defend their interests. Interest should be greatest among producers and users of the greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, namely methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.
碳排放交易已不再只是理论。初期市场已然存在，2002年，碳排放配额的交易额约为1000万美元。我们保守估计，到2010年，欧盟的碳排放交易计划每年的配额交易额将高达10亿美元。碳市场的推动力是全球减少温室气体排放的努力。其最显著的标志是1997年的《京都议定书》，正式名称为《联合国气候变化框架公约》。即便《京都议定书》未获批准，且尽管美国决定退出该条约，但减少温室气体排放的精灵已从瓶中逃出。我们认为，到2010年，温室气体交易将成为一项实实在在的日常活动，几乎可以肯定会在欧洲出现，在加拿大和日本也有可能出现。这些地区的碳排放交易将对美国产生影响，无论美国是否建立自己的计划。本研究的结论是，行业应参与界定碳排放交易——而且现在就参与——以推进并维护自身利益。对于除二氧化碳之外温室气体（即甲烷、一氧化二氮、氢氟碳化物、全氟化碳和六氟化硫）的生产者和使用者来说，利益可能最大。
