Commenges D, Alioum A, Lepage P, Van de Perre P, Msellati P, Dabis F
INSERM U330, Université de Bordeaux II, France.
AIDS. 1992 Dec;6(12):1515-20. doi: 10.1097/00002030-199212000-00015.
To estimate the distribution of the incubation period of paediatric AIDS in Rwanda.
Data were collected between February 1984 and December 1990 at the Centre Hospitalier de Kigali (CHK), the capital city of Rwanda, Central Africa.
We used a sample of 685 AIDS cases registered consecutively in the Department of Paediatrics of the CHK, in which the proportion of perinatally acquired HIV-1 infection was estimated to be 98.6%.
We performed both non-parametric and parametric analyses. The methods of estimation were adapted to truncated data, using essentially the same methods as Auger et al. in their analysis of data from the New York City and the New York State AIDS case registries in 1988.
We found that a double Weibull model fitted the data very well and that the risk of developing AIDS was high for subjects under 18 months of age, but lower for older subjects.
Our results were qualitatively similar to those of Auger et al.. There were quantitative differences between the two studies, but it was not possible to compare median survival periods. Parameters such as median or mean survival times cannot be validly estimated using only data from registers because these data exclude infected subjects who have not yet developed AIDS.
评估卢旺达儿童艾滋病潜伏期的分布情况。
数据收集于1984年2月至1990年12月期间，地点为位于非洲中部卢旺达首都基加利的基加利中心医院（CHK）。
我们采用了在基加利中心医院儿科连续登记的685例艾滋病病例样本，其中经母婴传播感染HIV-1的比例估计为98.6%。
我们进行了非参数和参数分析。估计方法适用于截尾数据，基本采用了奥热等人在1988年分析纽约市和纽约州艾滋病病例登记数据时所使用的相同方法。
我们发现双韦布尔模型与数据拟合得很好，并且18个月以下的受试者患艾滋病的风险较高，而年龄较大的受试者风险较低。
我们的结果在定性上与奥热等人的结果相似。两项研究之间存在定量差异，但无法比较中位生存期。仅使用登记数据无法有效估计中位生存期或平均生存期等参数，因为这些数据排除了尚未发展为艾滋病的感染受试者。
