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季节性收获对阶段结构种群模型的影响。

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

作者信息

Tang Sanyi, Chen Lansun

机构信息

Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.

出版信息

J Math Biol. 2004 Apr;48(4):357-74. doi: 10.1007/s00285-003-0243-5. Epub 2003 Oct 27.

Abstract

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

摘要

在大多数种群动态模型中,因出生导致的种群增长被假定为与时间无关,但许多物种只在一年中的单一时期繁殖。我们针对鱼类种群动态提出了一个具有阶段结构的单物种开发模型,其中每个时间段内出生仅发生一次脉冲。由于出生脉冲种群通常由其庞加莱映射确定的离散时间动态系统来表征,我们探讨了在季节依赖性下收获时间对平衡种群规模的影响,并获得了其稳定性的阈值条件,还表明收获时间对鱼类种群的持续性、成熟鱼存量以及最大年可持续产量有强烈影响。此外,我们的结果表明,如果尽可能在季节早期(出生脉冲之后)捕捞成熟鱼,种群能够承受更高的收获率。进一步地,我们还研究了捕捞努力和收获时间对动态复杂性的影响。以出生率(或捕捞努力或收获时间)作为分岔参数构建分岔图,观察到这些图展示出丰富的结构,包括带有周期窗口的混沌带、叉形分岔和切分岔、非唯一动力学(意味着多个吸引子共存)以及吸引子危机。这表明出生脉冲实际上提供了一个使动态行为更复杂的自然周期或循环性。

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