以色列提高限速、速度溢出、病死率和道路死亡情况：一项5年随访研究
Raised speed limits, speed spillover, case-fatality rates, and road deaths in Israel: a 5-year follow-up.
作者信息
Richter Elihu D, Barach Paul, Friedman Lee, Krikler Samuel, Israeli Abraham
机构信息
Hebrew University-Hadassah School of Community Medicine and Public Health, Unit of Occupational and Environmental Medicine and Injury Prevention Center, Jerusalem, Israel.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2004 Apr;94(4):568-74. doi: 10.2105/ajph.94.4.568.
OBJECTIVES
We assessed the 5-year, nationwide impact on road deaths of the raise in the speed limit (November 1, 1993) on 3 major interurban highways in Israel from 90 to 100 kph.
METHODS
We compared before-after trends in deaths as well as case fatality-an outcome independent of exposure (defined as vehicle-kilometers traveled).
RESULTS
After the raise, speeds rose by 4.5%-9.1%. Over 5 years, there was a sustained increase in deaths (15%) and case fatality rates (38%) on all interurban roads. Corresponding increases in deaths (13%) and case fatality (24%) on urban roads indicated "speed spillover."
CONCLUSIONS
Immediate increases in case fatality predicted and tracked the sustained increase in deaths from increased speeds of impact. Newtonian fourth power models predicted the effects of "small" increases in speed on large rises in case fatality rates. Countermeasures and congestion reduced the impact on deaths and case-fatality rates by more than half.
目的
我们评估了1993年11月1日以色列3条主要城市间高速公路限速从90公里/小时提高到100公里/小时对全国道路死亡人数的5年影响。
方法
我们比较了死亡人数以及病例死亡率（一种与暴露无关的结果，定义为车辆行驶公里数）的前后趋势。
结果
限速提高后，车速提高了4.5%-9.1%。在5年时间里，所有城市间道路的死亡人数（15%）和病例死亡率（38%）持续上升。城市道路上相应的死亡人数增加（13%）和病例死亡率增加（24%）表明存在“速度溢出”。
结论
病例死亡率的立即增加预示并跟踪了因撞击速度增加导致的死亡人数持续增加。牛顿四次方模型预测了速度“小幅”增加对病例死亡率大幅上升的影响。对策和拥堵使对死亡人数和病例死亡率的影响降低了一半以上。
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