Rock S M
Department of Economics, Western Illinois University, Macomb 61455, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 1995 Apr;27(2):207-14. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(94)00058-t.
At the end of April 1987, Illinois raised the speed limit from 55 to 65 mph on rural interstates and limited-access highways. This paper examines the effects of this change. It applies ARIMA techniques to a monthly time series of accidents, injuries, and fatalities dating from five years before the limit increase to four years after. Two types of rural highways are examined: those where the speed limit was raised and those where it remained at 55 mph. The impact of higher limits on mean speeds, speed variance, traffic diversion, traffic generation, speed spillover, and issues of benefits and costs are considered. The findings suggest the higher limit led to 300 additional accidents per month in rural Illinois, with associated increases in deaths and injuries. This impact was apparent on both 65 and 55 mph roads. There is some evidence of traffic diversion from 55 to 65 mph highways plus traffic generation and speed spillover.
1987年4月底，伊利诺伊州将农村地区的州际公路和限制进入的高速公路限速从每小时55英里提高到每小时65英里。本文研究了这一变化带来的影响。它将自限速提高前五年至提高后四年的事故、受伤和死亡月度时间序列应用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）技术进行分析。研究了两类农村公路：限速提高的公路和限速维持在每小时55英里的公路。考虑了更高限速对平均速度、速度方差、交通分流、交通生成、速度溢出以及效益和成本问题的影响。研究结果表明，更高的限速导致伊利诺伊州农村地区每月新增300起事故，死亡和受伤人数也相应增加。这种影响在限速每小时65英里和每小时55英里的道路上都很明显。有证据表明存在从每小时55英里的公路向每小时65英里的公路的交通分流，以及交通生成和速度溢出情况。
