Montgomery M R, Reasor M J
College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa 33612.
J Toxicol Environ Health. 1992 Aug;36(4):281-92. doi: 10.1080/15287399209531639.
Retrograde extrapolation is a mathematical process, based on sound scientific principles, that is used routinely in pharmacology, toxicology, and clinical medicine. This process may be applied to the situation of ethyl alcohol consumption with reliability when reasonable assumptions are made concerning absorption rates, elimination rates, and patterns of alcohol consumption, including drinking duration and volume consumed. By utilizing an established range of values for the elimination rate of alcohol of 0.015-0.020 g/dl/h, a relatively narrow range of extrapolated blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) can be determined in situations where the time frame in question is after peak alcohol absorption into the blood. A wider range of elimination rates of 0.01-0.03 g/dl/h may be applied and will satisfy the possibility of nonlinear kinetics within an individual; however, this wider range will have little practical effect on the predicted BACs. When the time point in question is prior to peak absorption, a wider range of predicted BAC values will result. The extent of this range will be influenced by the amount of information available concerning the temporal pattern of alcohol consumption. Reported drinking volumes are notoriously inaccurate and, in fact, are of little practical use. Given the parameters of body weight and time duration between initiation of drinking and determination of the BAC, the number of "drinks" consumed may be reliability calculated. Retrograde extrapolation is applicable in the forensic setting with scientific reliability when reasonable and justifiable assumptions are utilized.
逆向推断是一个基于可靠科学原理的数学过程，常用于药理学、毒理学和临床医学。当对酒精的吸收速率、消除速率以及饮酒模式（包括饮酒持续时间和饮酒量）做出合理假设时，这个过程可以可靠地应用于酒精消费的情况。通过利用已确定的酒精消除速率范围为0.015 - 0.020 g/dl/h，可以在酒精吸收进入血液达到峰值后的特定时间范围内确定相对较窄的外推血液酒精浓度（BAC）范围。也可以应用更宽的消除速率范围0.01 - 0.03 g/dl/h，这将考虑个体内非线性动力学的可能性；然而，这个更宽的范围对预测的BAC实际影响不大。当所讨论的时间点在峰值吸收之前时，预测的BAC值范围会更宽。这个范围的大小将受到关于饮酒时间模式的可用信息量的影响。报告的饮酒量 notoriously不准确，实际上几乎没有实际用途。给定体重参数以及饮酒开始到测定BAC之间的时间持续时间，可以可靠地计算出饮用的“饮料”数量。当使用合理且合理的假设时，逆向推断在法医环境中具有科学可靠性。 （注：原文中notoriously这个词在翻译时结合语境意译为“ notoriously不准确”，可能需要根据具体专业背景进一步优化表述）
