Mason W Alex, Kosterman Rick, Hawkins J David, Herrenkohl Todd I, Lengua Liliana J, McCauley Elizabeth
Social Development Research Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98115, USA.
J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2004 Mar;43(3):307-15. doi: 10.1097/00004583-200403000-00012.
This study examined childhood behavior problems at ages 10 and 11 years as predictors of young adult depression, social phobia, and violence at age 21 years.
Data were collected as part of the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal study of 808 elementary school students from high-crime neighborhoods of Seattle. Reports of childhood behavior problems were obtained from parents and children in fall 1985 and from teachers in spring 1986. Follow-up reports of violence and DSM-III-R depression and social phobia were collected from 765 respondents using standard survey items and the Diagnostic Interview Schedule in 1996.
The past-year prevalences of depressive episode and social phobia were 20% and 17%, respectively. Twenty-one percent of the respondents reported two or more violent acts in the past year at age 21 years. Several available measures of childhood behavior problems as reported by parents, teachers, and children predicted violence (e.g., conduct problems, oppositional defiance); the strongest positive predictor of young adult violence was self-reported conduct problems, whereas self-reported shyness inhibited later violence. Relatively few child behavioral problems predicted social phobia (e.g., shyness). Results showed that children who reported higher, relative to lower, levels of conduct problems were nearly four times more likely to experience a depressive episode in early adulthood.
Findings suggest the potential value of intervening to reduce childhood conduct problems as a prevention strategy for not only violence but also depression.
本研究考察了10岁和11岁儿童的行为问题，将其作为21岁青年成人抑郁、社交恐惧症及暴力行为的预测因素。
数据收集自西雅图社会发展项目，该项目对来自西雅图高犯罪率社区的808名小学生进行纵向研究。1985年秋季从家长和孩子那里获取儿童行为问题报告，1986年春季从教师那里获取相关报告。1996年，使用标准调查问卷和诊断访谈表，从765名受访者那里收集了暴力行为、DSM-III-R抑郁及社交恐惧症的随访报告。
过去一年抑郁发作和社交恐惧症的患病率分别为20%和17%。21%的受访者报告在21岁时过去一年有两次或更多暴力行为。家长、教师和孩子报告的几种儿童行为问题测量指标可预测暴力行为（如品行问题、对立违抗）；青年成人暴力行为最强的正向预测因素是自我报告的品行问题，而自我报告的害羞会抑制后期暴力行为。相对较少的儿童行为问题可预测社交恐惧症（如害羞）。结果显示，报告品行问题水平较高（相对于较低）的儿童在成年早期经历抑郁发作的可能性几乎是其他儿童的四倍。
研究结果表明，作为一种预防策略，干预以减少儿童品行问题不仅对预防暴力行为，而且对预防抑郁症都具有潜在价值。
