Goldstein Bernard, Carruth Russellyn S
University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA.
Risk Anal. 2004 Apr;24(2):491-9. doi: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00452.x.
Risk analysis has been recognized and validated in World Trade Organization (WTO) decision processes. In recent years the precautionary principle has been proposed as an additional or alternative approach to standard risk assessment. The precautionary principle has also been advocated by some who see it as part of postmodern democracy in which more power is given to the public on health and safety matters relative to the judgments of technocrats. A more cynical view is that the precautionary principle is particularly championed by the European Community as a means to erect trade barriers. The WTO ruling against the European Community's trade barrier against beef from hormone-treated cattle seemed to support the use of risk assessment and appeared to reject the argument that the precautionary principle was a legitimate basis for trade barriers. However, a more recent WTO decision on asbestos contains language suggesting that the precautionary principle, in the form of taking into account public perception, may be acceptable as a basis for a trade barrier. This decision, if followed in future WTO trade disputes, such as for genetically modified foods, raises many issues central to the field of risk analysis. It is too early to tell whether the precautionary principle will become accepted in WTO decisions, either as a supplement or a substitute for standard risk assessment. But it would undermine the value of the precautionary principle if this principle were misused to justify unwarranted trade barriers.
风险分析在世界贸易组织（WTO）的决策过程中已得到认可和验证。近年来，预防原则已被提议作为标准风险评估的补充或替代方法。一些人将预防原则视为后现代民主的一部分，在健康和安全问题上，相对于技术专家的判断，公众被赋予了更多权力，这些人也倡导预防原则。一种更为愤世嫉俗的观点认为，预防原则尤其受到欧盟的推崇，是其设置贸易壁垒的一种手段。WTO对欧盟针对来自用激素处理过的牛的牛肉设置贸易壁垒的裁决，似乎支持了风险评估的运用，并且似乎驳回了预防原则是贸易壁垒合法依据的论点。然而，WTO最近一项关于石棉的裁决包含的措辞表明，以考虑公众认知的形式出现的预防原则，可能被接受为贸易壁垒的一个依据。如果在未来WTO的贸易争端中（如针对转基因食品的争端）遵循这一裁决，将会引发许多风险分析领域的核心问题。现在判断预防原则是否会在WTO的决策中被接受，作为标准风险评估的补充或替代，还为时过早。但如果该原则被滥用来为无端的贸易壁垒辩护，将会损害预防原则的价值。
