Noland Robert B, Oh Lyoong
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine, London SW7 2BU, UK.
Accid Anal Prev. 2004 Jul;36(4):525-32. doi: 10.1016/S0001-4575(03)00058-7.
This paper presents analyses of data from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the State of Illinois. Our analyses focuses on whether various changes in road network infrastructure and geometric design can be associated with changes in road fatalities and reported accidents. We also evaluate models that control for demographic changes. County-level time-series data is used and fixed effect negative binomial models are estimated. Results cannot confirm the hypothesis that changes in road infrastructure and geometric design have been beneficial for safety. Increases in the number of lanes appears to be associated with both increased traffic-related accidents and fatalities. Increased lane widths appears to be associated with increased fatalities. Increases in outside shoulder width appear to be associated with a decrease in accidents. Inclusion of demographic results does not significantly change these results but does capture much of the residual time trend in the models. Potentially mis-leading results are found when the time trend is not included. In this case a negative association between vertical curvature and both accidents and fatalities. No statistical association with changes in safety is found for median widths, inside shoulder widths, and horizontal and vertical curvature.
本文介绍了对伊利诺伊州公路安全信息系统（HSIS）数据的分析。我们的分析重点在于道路网络基础设施和几何设计的各种变化是否与道路死亡人数和报告的事故变化相关。我们还评估了控制人口变化的模型。使用县级时间序列数据并估计固定效应负二项式模型。结果无法证实道路基础设施和几何设计的变化对安全有益这一假设。车道数量的增加似乎与交通相关事故和死亡人数的增加都有关。车道宽度的增加似乎与死亡人数的增加有关。外侧路肩宽度的增加似乎与事故减少有关。纳入人口统计结果并没有显著改变这些结果，但确实捕捉到了模型中大部分的剩余时间趋势。当不包括时间趋势时会发现潜在的误导性结果。在这种情况下，垂直曲率与事故和死亡人数之间存在负相关。对于中央分隔带宽度、内侧路肩宽度以及水平和垂直曲率，未发现与安全变化的统计关联。
