Stringer L A, Guitian F J, Abernethy D A, Honhold N H, Menzies F D
Veterinary Epidemiology Unit, Department of Agriculture and Rural Development Northern Ireland, Dundonald House, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom.
Prev Vet Med. 2008 Apr 17;84(1-2):72-84. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.11.005. Epub 2008 Jan 22.
The movement of cattle from herds infected with Brucella abortus was investigated in order to assess the control measures for eradication of brucellosis from the cattle population of Northern Ireland. Using recorded cattle movement data, a historical cohort study was designed and carried out to quantify the risk of seropositivity in bovine animals moved from herds infected with brucellosis. The study found that 3.1% of animals, moved in the 6-month period prior to disclosure of infection in the source herd and subsequently tested, were interpreted as seropositive in their destination herds. The odds of seropositivity were approximately 19 (95% confidence interval: 7.8-46.4) times higher in this cohort compared with animals from herds with no history of infection. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to examine factors influencing the risk of seropositivity in the exposed cohort of animals, identifying maternal status (whether the dam had been a brucellosis reactor) and age at leaving the infected herd as the main risk factors.
为评估北爱尔兰牛群布鲁氏菌病根除控制措施,对感染流产布鲁氏菌的牛群的移动情况进行了调查。利用记录的牛群移动数据,设计并开展了一项历史性队列研究,以量化从感染布鲁氏菌病的牛群中移出的牛出现血清学阳性的风险。研究发现,在感染源牛群披露感染前6个月内移动并随后接受检测的动物中,有3.1%在其目的地牛群中被判定为血清学阳性。与无感染史牛群中的动物相比,该队列中血清学阳性的几率约高19倍(95%置信区间:7.8 - 46.4)。构建了一个多变量逻辑回归模型,以检查影响暴露动物队列中血清学阳性风险的因素,确定母体状况(即母牛是否曾为布鲁氏菌病反应动物)和离开感染牛群时的年龄为主要风险因素。