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根据报告的疫情评估美国消除麻疹的状况:1997 - 1999年

Assessment of the status of measles elimination from reported outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999.

作者信息

Gay Nigel J, De Serres Gaston, Farrington C Paddy, Redd Susan B, Papania Mark J

机构信息

Health Protection Agency, Modelling and Economics Unit, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, UK.

出版信息

J Infect Dis. 2004 May 1;189 Suppl 1:S36-42. doi: 10.1086/377695.

Abstract

The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R<1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. These results demonstrate that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated.

摘要

通过评估有效繁殖数R能最好地总结麻疹消除的状况;维持R<1是实现消除的必要且充分条件。先前描述的根据麻疹传播链的规模和持续时间以及输入病例比例来估计R的方法,被应用于1997 - 1999年美国报告的麻疹数据。这些数据包括338例病例,形成了165条传播链,其中43条传播链有>1例病例。107例病例被归类为输入病例。所有3种方法都表明R在0.6 - 0.7范围内。结果对所考虑的疫情最小规模和持续时间(只要排除单病例传播链)或对排除无已知输入源的传播链不敏感。这些结果表明,对麻疹的易感性低于流行阈值,并且地方性传播已被消除。

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