Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, PR China.
J Theor Biol. 2011 Sep 21;285(1):25-35. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.06.025. Epub 2011 Jul 1.
Population dispersal, as a common phenomenon in human society, may cause the spreading of many diseases such as influenza, SARS, etc. which are easily transmitted from one region to other regions. Exit and entry screenings at the border are considered as effective ways for controlling the spread of disease. In this paper, the dynamics of an SIQS model are analyzed and the combined effects of transport-related infection enhancing and exit-entry screenings suppressing on disease spread are discussed. The basic reproduction number is computed and proved to be a threshold for disease control. If it is not greater than the unity, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. And there exists an endemic equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable if the reproduction number is greater than unity. It is shown that the disease is endemic in the sense of permanence if and only if the endemic equilibrium exists. Exit screening and entry screening are shown to be helpful for disease eradication since they can always have the possibility to eradicate the disease endemic led by transport-related infection and furthermore have the possibility to eradicate disease even when the isolated cites are disease endemic.
人口流动是人类社会中的一种常见现象,它可能导致流感、SARS 等传染病的传播,这些疾病很容易从一个地区传播到另一个地区。边境的出入境筛查被认为是控制疾病传播的有效方法。本文分析了 SIQS 模型的动力学,讨论了与交通相关的感染增强和出入境筛查抑制对疾病传播的综合影响。计算了基本再生数,并证明它是疾病控制的一个阈值。如果它不大于 1,则无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的。如果再生数大于 1,则存在一个地方渐近稳定的地方病平衡点。如果存在地方病平衡点,则表明疾病在持久性意义上是地方病。出入境筛查有助于疾病的根除,因为它们总是有可能根除由交通相关感染引起的地方病流行,并且即使隔离城市存在地方病,也有可能根除疾病。