Briscoe Suzanne
NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Sydney, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2004 Sep;36(5):919-29. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2003.10.005.
The rate of road accidents per 100,000 vehicles registered was examined before and after the statutory penalties for drink-driving offences were doubled in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Interrupted time-series analyses found significant increases in three non-fatal accident series after the implementation of the new penalties. The observed increase in the rate of single-vehicle night-time accidents, the accident category most likely to be alcohol-related, was not expected and runs contrary to the anticipated deterrent effect of the new laws. The failure of this policy to have an impact on aggregate-level road accident rates is discussed.
在澳大利亚新南威尔士州（NSW）将酒后驾车犯罪的法定处罚加倍前后，对每10万辆登记车辆的道路事故发生率进行了检查。中断时间序列分析发现，新处罚实施后，三个非致命事故系列显著增加。单车辆夜间事故发生率的增加出乎意料，因为这类事故最有可能与酒精有关，这与新法律预期的威慑效果背道而驰。本文讨论了该政策未能对总体道路事故率产生影响的原因。
