Department of Preventive Medicine, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan.
Inj Prev. 2011 Jun;17(3):182-8. doi: 10.1136/ip.2010.027680. Epub 2010 Dec 21.
Japanese road traffic law was amended in 2002 and 2007 to increase the penalties for drink-driving in response to media coverage, publicity campaigns, and debates following high-profile alcohol-related motor-vehicle crashes in 1999 and 2006.
To test the hypothesis that the proportion of crashes involving drink-driving started to decline before the law amendments, because of changes in social norms and driver behaviour after the high-profile crashes.
In order to assess the impact of the cases in 1999 and 2006, time-series analyses were used to examine the trends in the proportion of crashes involving drink-driving, and whether there were abrupt changes in the level or slope at the expected time points, using monthly police data for the period between January 1995 and December 2008.
In 1999, the proportion of alcohol-related fatal crashes in which the driver had a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) ≥0.5 mg/ml started to decline with a slope change of -0.09 percentage points per month (95% CI -0.15 to -0.03) but no level change, whereas there were no changes for drivers with a BAC <0.5. In 2006, the trends for drivers with a BAC ≥0.5 or <0.5 showed significant level declines of -3.1 (-5.0 to -1.2) and -1.7 (-2.5 to -0.9) percentage points, respectively, but no slope changes.
Media coverage of high-profile crashes, and subsequent publicity campaigns and debates might have altered social norms and driver behaviour, reducing the proportion of alcohol-related crashes before the introduction of more severe penalties for drink-driving.
日本道路交通法分别于 2002 年和 2007 年进行了修订，加大了对酒后驾车的处罚力度，以应对 1999 年和 2006 年两起备受瞩目的与酒精相关的机动车事故后媒体的报道、宣传活动以及相关辩论。
检验以下假设，即由于高关注度事故发生后社会规范和驾驶员行为的变化，在法律修订之前，涉及酒后驾车的事故比例开始下降。
为了评估 1999 年和 2006 年案例的影响，采用时间序列分析方法，利用 1995 年 1 月至 2008 年 12 月期间每月的警方数据，检查涉及酒后驾车的事故比例的趋势，以及在预期时间点上水平或斜率是否发生突然变化。
1999 年，血液酒精浓度（BAC）≥0.5mg/ml 的驾驶员在涉及酒精的致命事故中所占比例开始下降，斜率变化为每月-0.09 个百分点（95%置信区间为-0.15 至-0.03），但水平没有变化；而 BAC<0.5 的驾驶员则没有变化。2006 年，BAC≥0.5 或<0.5 的驾驶员的趋势显示，水平分别显著下降了-3.1（-5.0 至-1.2）和-1.7（-2.5 至-0.9）个百分点，但斜率没有变化。
高关注度事故的媒体报道，以及随后的宣传活动和辩论可能改变了社会规范和驾驶员行为，从而在对酒后驾车实施更严厉的处罚之前降低了与酒精相关的事故比例。
