Singleton Michael, Qin Huifang, Luan Jingyu
Kentucky Injury Prevention and Research Center, Lexington, Kentucky 40504, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2004 Jun;5(2):144-50. doi: 10.1080/15389580490435169.
The majority of motor vehicle occupants who were killed or hospitalized in crashes in Kentucky in 2000-2001 occupied vehicles that were severely damaged in the crash. Even so, overall only a small percentage of all severely damaged vehicle occupants were killed or hospitalized. The purpose was to identify occupant, vehicle, crash, and roadway/environmental factors that were associated with increased risk of severe injury in crashes where the occupant's vehicle was severely damaged.
This study probabilistically linked Kentucky's statewide motor vehicle crash and inpatient hospital discharge data files for 2000 and 2001, and selected cases representing occupants of vehicles that were reported by police as having either "severe" or "very severe" damage. For occupants who were identified through data linkage as having been hospitalized, the Injury Severity Score (ISS) was calculated using ICDMAP-90 software, and the scores were stratified into the following categories: critical (>24), severe (15-24), moderate (9-14), and mild (<9). We then created an outcome variable, injury severity level, with five levels: killed; hospitalized with at least moderate injuries (ISS = critical, severe, or moderate); hospitalized with mild injuries (ISS = mild); injured according to the police report but not hospitalized; and no apparent injury according to the police report. We performed a stepwise, ordinal logistic regression of injury severity, using independent variables identified from the existing crash literature.
Occupant risk factors for higher levels of injury severity selected by the regression were age (risk increased with age, other factors being equal), female gender, restraint non-use, ejection from the vehicle, and driver impairment (by alcohol and/or drugs). Crash risk factors included head-on collision, collision with a fixed object, vehicle rollover, and vehicle fire. Roadway/environmental factors were federal- or state-maintained roadway and posted speed limit 89 kph (55 mph) or greater.
Many of the identified risk factors are explicitly or implicitly mentioned in the strategic plans of key organizations involved in highway safety and injury prevention in Kentucky. Our analysis provides additional evidence of their importance, and confirms that their mitigation will reduce injury severity in crashes involving severe vehicle damage. Additionally, older occupants and female occupants showed increased risks of serious injury, but to our knowledge these factors are not currently addressed in any state plans. An opportunity exists to clarify the nature of these risks through further studies, which might lead to the identification of countermeasures specific to these populations.
2000 - 2001年在肯塔基州因车祸死亡或住院的大多数机动车驾乘人员所乘坐的车辆在事故中严重受损。即便如此,总体而言,在所有车辆严重受损的驾乘人员中,只有一小部分死亡或住院。目的是确定在驾乘人员车辆严重受损的车祸中,与重伤风险增加相关的驾乘人员、车辆、事故及道路/环境因素。
本研究将肯塔基州2000年和2001年的全州机动车事故数据文件与住院病人出院数据文件进行概率关联,并选取代表警方报告为“严重”或“非常严重”受损车辆驾乘人员的案例。对于通过数据关联确定已住院的驾乘人员,使用ICDMAP - 90软件计算损伤严重度评分(ISS),并将评分分为以下几类:危急(>24)、严重(15 - 24)、中度(9 - 14)和轻度(<9)。然后我们创建了一个结果变量,即损伤严重程度等级,分为五个等级:死亡;至少中度受伤住院(ISS = 危急、严重或中度);轻度受伤住院(ISS = 轻度);根据警方报告受伤但未住院;根据警方报告无明显受伤。我们使用从现有事故文献中确定的自变量,对损伤严重程度进行逐步有序逻辑回归分析。
回归分析选出的损伤严重程度较高的驾乘人员风险因素包括年龄(在其他因素相同的情况下,风险随年龄增加)、女性、未使用约束装置、被抛出车外以及驾驶员受损(因酒精和/或药物)。事故风险因素包括正面碰撞、与固定物体碰撞、车辆翻滚和车辆起火。道路/环境因素为联邦或州维护的道路以及张贴的限速为89公里/小时(55英里/小时)或更高。
肯塔基州参与公路安全和伤害预防的关键组织的战略计划中明确或隐含地提到了许多已确定的风险因素。我们的分析提供了它们重要性的更多证据,并证实减轻这些因素将降低涉及车辆严重受损的车祸中的损伤严重程度。此外,年长的驾乘人员和女性驾乘人员重伤风险增加,但据我们所知,目前任何州计划都未涉及这些因素。存在通过进一步研究来阐明这些风险性质的机会,这可能会促成针对这些人群的具体对策的确定。