Malhi Yadvinder, Phillips Oliver L
School of GeoSciences, Darwin Building, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JU, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2004 Mar 29;359(1443):549-55. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2003.1449.
We present a personal perspective on the highlights of the Theme Issue 'Tropical forests and global atmospheric change'. We highlight the key findings on the contemporary rate of climatic change in the tropics, the evidence-gained from field studies-of large-scale and rapid change in the dynamics and biomass of old-growth forests, and evidence of how climate change and fragmentation can interact to increase the vulnerability of plants and animals to fires. A range of opinions exists concerning the possible cause of these observed changes, but examination of the spatial 'fingerprint' of observed change may help to identify the driving mechanism(s). Studies of changes in tropical forest regions since the last glacial maximum show the sensitivity of species composition and ecology to atmospheric changes. Model studies of change in forest vegetation highlight the potential importance of temperature or drought thresholds that could lead to substantial forest decline in the near future. During the coming century, the Earth's remaining tropical forests face the combined pressures of direct human impacts and a climatic and atmospheric situation not experienced for at least 20 million years. Understanding and monitoring of their response to this atmospheric change are essential if we are to maximize their conservation options.
我们从个人视角对《热带森林与全球气候变化》这一主题特刊的要点进行阐述。我们着重介绍了有关热带地区当代气候变化速率的关键发现，从实地研究中获得的关于原始森林动态和生物量大规模快速变化的证据，以及气候变化和森林碎片化如何相互作用从而增加动植物火灾脆弱性的证据。对于这些观测到的变化的可能成因存在多种观点，但审视观测变化的空间“特征”可能有助于确定驱动机制。自末次盛冰期以来对热带森林地区变化的研究表明，物种组成和生态对大气变化很敏感。森林植被变化的模型研究突出了温度或干旱阈值的潜在重要性，这些阈值可能导致在不久的将来森林大幅减少。在未来一个世纪，地球上现存的热带森林面临着直接的人类影响以及至少两千万年来未曾经历过的气候和大气状况的综合压力。如果我们要最大限度地增加其保护选项，那么了解和监测它们对这种大气变化的反应至关重要。
