Abbott Max W, Williams Maynard M, Volberg Rachel A
Faculty of Health, Auckland University of Technology, Northcote, Auckland, New Zealand.
Subst Use Misuse. 2004 May;39(6):855-84. doi: 10.1081/ja-120030891.
Little is known about the life course of gambling problems and there have been no prospective studies of problem gambling. This article describes a study of 77 problem gamblers and 66 nonproblem gamblers recruited from a national prevalence survey in New Zealand in 1991 and reassessed in 1998. While most 1991 problem gamblers were nonproblematic at follow-up, a significant minority had developed more serious problems. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified more severe gambling problems, hazardous drinking, and a preference for track betting as the strongest independent predictors of subsequent problem gambling. These findings contradict conventional notions that pathological gambling is invariably a chronic or chronically relapsing disorder. The findings have implications for the interpretation of previous research, conduct of future research, and problem gambling policy and treatment.
关于赌博问题的发展历程所知甚少，且尚未有对问题赌博的前瞻性研究。本文描述了一项研究，该研究从1991年新西兰全国患病率调查中招募了77名问题赌徒和66名非问题赌徒，并于1998年对他们进行了重新评估。虽然大多数1991年的问题赌徒在随访时没有问题，但有相当少数的人出现了更严重的问题。多元逻辑回归分析确定，更严重的赌博问题、有害饮酒以及对赛马投注的偏好是后续问题赌博最强的独立预测因素。这些发现与病理性赌博总是一种慢性或慢性复发性疾病的传统观念相矛盾。这些发现对以往研究的解释、未来研究的开展以及问题赌博政策和治疗都有影响。
