Wegner C, Gutsch A, Hessel F, Wasem J
Lehrstuhl für Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre und Gesundheitsmanagement, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universität Greifswald.
Gesundheitswesen. 2004 Jul;66(7):423-32. doi: 10.1055/s-2004-813326.
Costs of productivity loss for the Federal Republic of Germany attributable to smoking in 1999 was to be determined.
Mortality and morbidity attributable to smoking is determined by a 0.5 % sample of the smoking behaviour of the German population (microcensus 1999) and the relative mortality risks of smokers (US-American cancer prevention study II). Tobacco smoke-associated cancer illnesses, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory tract diseases and illnesses of children under one year are considered. Calculation of the productivity-relevant consequences of smoking due to morbidity and mortality is effected according to the so-called human potential capital method.
In Germany total of 607,393 working years were lost because of smoking in the year 1999. The costs of productivity loss are estimated at 14,480 billion euro. From this 4,525 billion euro are allotted to premature mortality, 5.759 billion euro to permanent disablement and 4.196 billion euro to temporary incapacitation for work. If the costs of productivity loss by smoking are referred to the gross national product (BSP) in the year 1999, an economical damage at a value of 0.74 % of BSPs results. This corresponds to a productivity loss of 379 euro per present or former smoker. The sensitivity analysis manifests that the inclusion of "non-marketable production" results in an immense rise productivity losses attributable to smoking. However, it should be noted that in times of mass unemployment the human capital method which is based on full employment does not measure the actual, but only the potential productivity loss cost.
This partial disease cost study shows that immense economic productivity losses are associated with smoking. This loss of resources can justify a purposeful promotion of studies regarding cost effectiveness of anti-smoking therapeutic measures or preventive measures against smoking. But it should be considered that the use of the human potential capital method results in an overestimation of the actual productivity losses by smoking. In future the costs of productivity losses attributable to smoking should be determined by the friction cost method. With this procedure a more realistic estimation of productivity-relevant costs of smoking is possible.
确定1999年德意志联邦共和国因吸烟造成的生产力损失成本。
通过德国人口吸烟行为的0.5%样本（1999年微观人口普查）以及吸烟者的相对死亡风险（美国癌症预防研究II）来确定归因于吸烟的死亡率和发病率。考虑与烟草烟雾相关的癌症疾病、心血管疾病、呼吸道疾病以及一岁以下儿童的疾病。根据所谓的人力潜在资本法计算因发病和死亡导致的吸烟对生产力相关的影响。
1999年在德国，因吸烟共损失了607,393个工作年。生产力损失成本估计为14,4800亿欧元。其中45250亿欧元归因于过早死亡，5759亿欧元归因于永久残疾，4196亿欧元归因于暂时丧失工作能力。如果将吸烟造成的生产力损失成本与1999年的国民生产总值（BSP）相比，会导致相当于BSP值0.74%的经济损失。这相当于每位当前或曾经吸烟者的生产力损失为379欧元。敏感性分析表明，纳入“不可销售生产”会导致因吸烟造成的生产力损失大幅上升。然而，应该注意的是，在大规模失业时期，基于充分就业的人力资本法衡量的不是实际的，而只是潜在的生产力损失成本。
这项部分疾病成本研究表明，吸烟会造成巨大的经济生产力损失。这种资源损失可以为有针对性地推动关于戒烟治疗措施或预防吸烟措施成本效益的研究提供理由。但应该考虑到，使用人力潜在资本法会高估吸烟实际造成的生产力损失。未来，应通过摩擦成本法来确定因吸烟造成的生产力损失成本。通过这种方法，可以更现实地估计与吸烟相关的生产力成本。
