Wilkinson Tim J, Frampton Christopher M
Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Med Educ. 2004 Oct;38(10):1111-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2929.2004.01962.x.
This study aimed to compare an essay-style undergraduate medical assessment with modified essay, multiple-choice question (MCQ) and objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) undergraduate medical assessments in predicting students' clinical performance (predictive validity), and to determine the relative contributions of the written (modified essay and MCQ) assessment and OSCE to predictive validity.
Before and after cohort study.
One medical school running a 6-year undergraduate course.
Study participants included 137 Year 5 medical students followed into their trainee intern year.
Aggregated global ratings by senior doctors, junior doctors and nurses as well as comprehensive structured assessments of performance in the trainee intern year.
Students' scores in the new examinations predicted performance significantly better than scores in the old examinations, with correlation coefficients increasing from 0.05-0.44 to 0.41-0.81. The OSCE was a stronger predictor of subsequent performance than the written assessments but combining assessments had the strongest predictive validity.
Using more comprehensive, more reliable and more authentic undergraduate assessment methods substantially increases predictive validity.
本研究旨在比较本科医学课程中论文式评估与改良论文、多项选择题（MCQ）和客观结构化临床考试（OSCE）本科医学评估在预测学生临床能力（预测效度）方面的差异，并确定书面评估（改良论文和MCQ）和OSCE对预测效度的相对贡献。
队列前后研究。
一所开设6年制本科课程的医学院。
研究参与者包括137名五年级医学生，并跟踪至实习医生培训阶段。
由资深医生、初级医生和护士进行的综合整体评分，以及实习医生培训阶段的综合结构化表现评估。
学生在新考试中的成绩比旧考试成绩能更显著地预测表现，相关系数从0.05 - 0.44增加到0.41 - 0.81。OSCE比书面评估更能预测后续表现，但综合评估具有最强的预测效度。
使用更全面、更可靠和更真实的本科评估方法可大幅提高预测效度。
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