Broutin Hélène, Elguero Eric, Simondon François, Guégan Jean-François
UR024, IRD, 911 avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5, France.
Proc Biol Sci. 2004 Oct 22;271(1553):2091-8. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2004.2847.
Extended time-series analysis of infectious diseases raises two issues: the spread of disease, and its persistence in space and time. Most studies are based on both data and models, corresponding to conditions encountered in developed countries. The present work sought to determine the impact of local heterogeneity on these two issues, regarding pertussis in tropical conditions. First, we tested the 'cities and villages' model in a small community of 30 villages in rural Senegal. Second, we focused on the impact of population size and density, as well as geographic distance, on population dynamics of pertussis. Results showed that pertussis initially arrived in urban centres, and then spread to surrounding areas. Both population size and density are implicated in the persistence of pertussis within the study area, whereas geographical distance between villages is not. This is the first study on pertussis in a developing country carried out on a very fine spatial scale. Furthermore, it confirms previous results for measles in England and Wales.
疾病的传播以及它在空间和时间上的持续存在。大多数研究基于数据和模型，这与发达国家所遇到的情况相对应。本研究试图确定在热带条件下，局部异质性对这两个问题的影响，以百日咳为例。首先，我们在塞内加尔农村一个由30个村庄组成的小社区中测试了“城市与乡村”模型。其次，我们重点研究了人口规模和密度以及地理距离对百日咳种群动态的影响。结果表明，百日咳最初出现在城市中心，然后扩散到周边地区。人口规模和密度都与研究区域内百日咳的持续存在有关，而村庄之间的地理距离则无关。这是在发展中国家以非常精细的空间尺度开展的第一项关于百日咳的研究。此外，它证实了此前在英格兰和威尔士针对麻疹的研究结果。
