Rhodes C J, Anderson R M
Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, United Kingdom.
Theor Popul Biol. 1997 Oct;52(2):101-18. doi: 10.1006/tpbi.1997.1323.
We use a lattice-based epidemic model to study the spatial and temporal rates of disease spread in a spatially distributed host population. The prevalence of the disease in the population is studied as well as the spread of infection about a point source of infection. In particular, two distinct critical population densities are identified. The first relates to the minimum population density for a epidemic to occur, whilst the second is the minimum population density for long-term persistence to occur. Vaccination regimes are introduced that are used to measure the impact of spatially and nonspatially dependent intervention strategies. Specifically we show how a ring of vaccinated susceptibles, of sufficient thickness, can halt the spread of infection across space.
我们使用基于格点的流行病模型来研究疾病在空间分布的宿主种群中的时空传播速率。同时研究了种群中疾病的流行情况以及围绕感染源的感染传播情况。特别地,确定了两个不同的临界种群密度。第一个与流行病发生的最小种群密度有关,而第二个是长期持续存在的最小种群密度。引入了疫苗接种方案,用于衡量空间依赖性和非空间依赖性干预策略的影响。具体而言,我们展示了足够厚度的接种疫苗的易感者环如何能够阻止感染在空间上的传播。