Thorpe Lorna E, Frieden Thomas R, Laserson Kayla F, Wells Charles, Khatri Gulshan R
Division of Tuberculosis Elimination, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta GA, USA.
Lancet. 2004;364(9445):1613-4. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17316-9.
India has a third of the world's tuberculosis cases. Large-scale expansion of a national programme in 1998 has allowed for population-based analyses of data from tuberculosis registries. We assessed seasonal trends using quarterly reports from districts with stable tuberculosis control programmes (population 115 million). In northern India, tuberculosis diagnoses peaked between April and June, and reached a nadir between October and December, whereas no seasonality was reported in the south. Overall, rates of new smear-positive tuberculosis cases were 57 per 100000 population in peak seasons versus 46 per 100000 in trough seasons. General health-seeking behaviour artifact was ruled out. Seasonality was highest in paediatric cases, suggesting variation in recent transmission.
印度的结核病病例占全球的三分之一。1998年一项全国性计划的大规模扩展使得基于人群的结核病登记数据得以分析。我们利用结核病控制项目稳定地区（人口1.15亿）的季度报告评估了季节性趋势。在印度北部，结核病诊断高峰出现在4月至6月之间，低谷出现在10月至12月之间，而南部未报告有季节性。总体而言，新涂片阳性结核病病例的发病率在高峰季节为每10万人57例，低谷季节为每10万人46例。排除了一般的就医行为假象。季节性在儿科病例中最为明显，表明近期传播存在差异。
