分析印度各邦和中央直辖区结核病的季节性。

Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories.

作者信息

Narula Pankaj, Sihota Praveer, Azad Sarita, Lio Pietro

机构信息

School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 175001, Himachal Pradesh, India.

出版信息

J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2015 Dec;5(4):337-46. doi: 10.1016/j.jegh.2015.02.004. Epub 2015 Mar 18.

A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) is observed in north India during 2006-2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance) across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01%) and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%). In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April-June) and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October-December), however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value<0.001), 0.54 (p-value<0.01) and 0.42 (p-value<0.05) are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.

2006年至2011年期间，印度北部观察到结核病（TB）存在显著的季节性变化，特别是在喜马偕尔邦、哈里亚纳邦和拉贾斯坦邦等邦。为了量化季节性变化，我们测量了结核病涂片阳性病例各季节的平均振幅（峰值到谷值的距离），发现喜马偕尔邦的平均振幅最大（40.01%），马哈拉施特拉邦的最小（3.87%）。在印度北部，涂片阳性病例在第二季度（4月至6月）达到峰值，在第四季度（10月至12月）降至谷底，然而在该国南部地区观察到的季节性变化较小。在印度北部、中部和东北部，最低温度与结核病季节性在滞后1期的显著相关性分别为0.64（p值<0.001）、0.54（p值<0.01）和0.42（p值<0.05）。然而，在印度南部，这种相关性并不显著。