Gilbert Estella, Powell James A, Logan Jesse A, Bentz Barbara J
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan, Utah 84322-3900, USA.
Bull Math Biol. 2004 Nov;66(6):1821-50. doi: 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.04.003.
In all organisms, phenotypic variability is an evolutionary stipulation. Because the development of poikilothermic organisms depends directly on the temperature of their habitat, environmental variability is also an integral factor in models of their phenology. In this paper we present two existing phenology models, the distributed delay model and the Sharpe and DeMichele model, and develop an alternate approach, called the Extended von Foerster model, based on the age-structured McKendrick-von Foerster partial differential model. We compare the models theoretically by examining the biological assumptions made in the basic derivation of each approach. In particular, we focus on each model's ability to incorporate variability among individuals as well as variability in the environment. When compared against constant temperature mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) laboratory developmental data, the Extended von Foerster model exhibits the highest correlation between theory and observation.
在所有生物体中，表型变异性是一种进化规定。由于变温生物的发育直接取决于其栖息地的温度，环境变异性也是其物候模型中的一个不可或缺的因素。在本文中，我们介绍了两种现有的物候模型，即分布式延迟模型和夏普与德米歇勒模型，并基于年龄结构的麦肯德里克 - 冯·福斯特偏微分模型开发了一种替代方法，称为扩展冯·福斯特模型。我们通过研究每种方法基本推导中所做的生物学假设，从理论上比较这些模型。特别是，我们关注每个模型纳入个体间变异性以及环境变异性的能力。当与恒温条件下山地松甲虫（Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins）的实验室发育数据进行比较时，扩展冯·福斯特模型在理论与观测之间表现出最高的相关性。
