Nakaji Shigeyuki, Parodi Stefano, Fontana Vincenzo, Umeda Takashi, Suzuki Katsuhiko, Sakamoto Juichi, Fukuda Shinsaku, Wada Seiko, Sugawara Kazuo
Department of Hygiene, Hirosaki University School of Medicine, Zaifu-cho 5, Hirosaki, Japan.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2004;19(10):905-13. doi: 10.1007/s10654-004-4695-8.
It is well recognized that the season of the year exerts an influence on some diseases and causes of death such as coronary heart diseases, stroke, infectious diseases and so on.
We evaluated the influence of seasonal changes on diseases and causes of death in Japan using the Japan Vital Statistics from 1970 to 1999 and recorded weather data (mean temperature), by a Fourier decomposition in a log linear regression model.
Major influences of seasonal change with the highest rates in winter were seen on the following: the overall causes of death; infectious and parasitic diseases including tuberculosis; respiratory disease, including pneumonia and influenza; heart and cerebrovascular diseases; diabetes; and digestive diseases and accidents. Two peaks were seen in suicides, a large peak in April and a small peak in autumn. Cancer and homicides were little or not at all influenced by seasonality. There was no major difference in changes between the years studied, except for respiratory disease and tuberculosis, which showed a clear reduction in the seasonality effect from 1970 to 1999.
To reduce the overall mortality rate and to prolong life expectancy in Japan, measures must be taken to reduce those mortality rates associated with seasonal differences, especially those causes of death which show a strong correlation with seasonal change: respiratory, heart, cerebrovascular, diabetes and infectious diseases.
人们普遍认识到一年中的季节会对某些疾病和死因产生影响，如冠心病、中风、传染病等。
我们使用1970年至1999年的日本生命统计数据，并通过对数线性回归模型中的傅里叶分解记录天气数据（平均温度），评估季节变化对日本疾病和死因的影响。
冬季发病率最高的季节变化主要影响以下方面：总体死因；包括结核病在内的传染病和寄生虫病；呼吸系统疾病，包括肺炎和流感；心脏和脑血管疾病；糖尿病；消化系统疾病和事故。自杀出现两个高峰，4月有一个大高峰，秋季有一个小高峰。癌症和凶杀案受季节性影响很小或几乎没有影响。在所研究的年份之间，除了呼吸系统疾病和结核病外，变化没有重大差异，从1970年到1999年，这两种疾病的季节性效应明显降低。
为了降低日本的总体死亡率并延长预期寿命，必须采取措施降低与季节差异相关的死亡率，特别是那些与季节变化有强烈关联的死因：呼吸系统、心脏、脑血管、糖尿病和传染病。
