Walter S D, Kubik A, Parkin D M, Reissigova J, Adamec M, Khlat M
Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Cancer Causes Control. 1992 Mar;3(2):115-23. doi: 10.1007/BF00051651.
The results from a randomized controlled trial of screening for lung cancer in Czechoslovakia have been used to estimate parameters of the natural history, using a model to simulate the disease process and the effects of screening. The results suggest that the period before clinical presentation during which lesions can be detected by screening is very short (seven to eight months). This implies that to detect three-quarters of all lung cancers by screening, two examinations per year are necessary, and that such a program would advance diagnosis by six months if there were complete participation. The results of the trial itself suggest that the benefit, in terms of a reduction in mortality from lung cancer, is likely to be very small.
捷克斯洛伐克一项肺癌筛查随机对照试验的结果已被用于估计自然病史的参数，使用一个模型来模拟疾病进程和筛查效果。结果表明，在临床症状出现前可通过筛查检测到病变的时间非常短（7至8个月）。这意味着，要通过筛查检测到四分之三的肺癌，每年需要进行两次检查，并且如果完全参与，这样一个项目将使诊断提前6个月。试验本身的结果表明，就降低肺癌死亡率而言，益处可能非常小。
